Uncertainty over resumption of talks, Iran sends mixed signals
Trump: ceasefire expires Wednesday, extension unlikely
UAE discusses with U.S. for possible financial lifeline
•America seizes Iranian ship trying to pass naval blockade*
Oil prices jumped more than 5 per cent yesterday on fears that a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran could break down after the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo ship and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained largely halted.
Brent crude futures, Nigeria’s oil benchmark, advanced $4.61, or over 5.1 per cent, to $95.1 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was up $4.33, or 5.16 per cent at $88.1 per barrel.
Both prices tumbled by over 9 per cent on Friday for their largest daily declines since April 18 after Iran said that passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz was open for the remainder of the ceasefire.
But as of last night there was uncertainty over whether the planned peace talk which would have begun today would go ahead, even as the United States President, Donald Trump foreclosed the likelihood of an extension beyond Wednesday (tomorrow).
The escalation of the crisis is coming after the US said on Sunday that it had seized an Iranian cargo ship that tried to break through its blockade while Iran said it would retaliate, heightening fears of a resumption in hostilities.
There have been mixed signals for Iran attending the peace talks, as a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday, but no decision had been made. But Vice President JD Vance and the U.S. delegation were set to land in Pakistan within hours for talks on Iran, Trump said on Monday.
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained at a virtual standstill yesterday, with only three crossings in the 12 hours, shipping data showed. More than 20 ships passed through the strait on Saturday, carrying oil, liquefied petroleum gas, metals and fertilisers, Kpler data showed. That was the highest number of vessels crossing the waterway since March 1.
Trump: Ceasefire Expires Wednesday, Extension Unlikely
US President Donald Trump has said he now considers the ceasefire with Iran over “Wednesday evening Washington time” but that it’s “highly unlikely” he would extend it further if a deal is not reached.
It’s “highly unlikely that I’d extend it” Trump told Bloomberg in a phone interview. The ceasefire was originally slated to last two weeks and began the evening of April 7.
“I’m not going to be rushed into making a bad deal. We’ve got all the time in the world,” Trump said in the interview.
When asked if he would expect the fighting to resume immediately if they fail to reach an agreement, Trump said, “If there’s no deal, I would certainly expect.”
Previously, Trump has gone back and forth on whether he would agree to extend the ceasefire. In the course of one question-and-answer session with reporters last week, he was asked five separate times whether he would extend the ceasefire, and offered three different answers.
UAE in Talks with U.S. for Possible Financial Lifeline
Also, the United Arab Emirates has begun talks with the US about a financial backstop in case the Iran war plunges the country into further crisis, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing US officials it didn’t identify.
UAE Central Bank Governor Khaled Mohamed Balama raised the idea of a currency swap line with Federal Reserve and US Treasury officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, during meetings in Washington last week, according to a Wall Street Journal report.
The Emirati leaders said they have avoided the worst economic effects of the conflict but might still need a financial lifeline, the officials told the Journal.
The discussions underscore UAE’s growing anxiety that the war could harm its economy and position as an international financial centre, draining foreign currency reserves and triggering capital flight, according to the WSJ. Emirati officials haven’t formally requested a swap line, the Journal said.
The war has inflicted damage on the UAE’s energy infrastructure and blocked oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off a critical stream of dollar income.
In an interview Sunday on ABC’s This Week, Reem Al Hashimy, the UAE’s minister of state for international cooperation, said the sheikhdom has been hit with more than 2,800 missiles and drones since the US-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28.
Iran Not Planning to Attend Talks with U.S. in Pakistan
Iran isn’t planning to attend talks with the United States, the regime said, after President Trump said he was sending U.S. negotiators to Pakistan to take part in renewed talks on Monday, just days before a ceasefire in the Middle East expires.
The ongoing U.S. blockade of Iranian ports has been a significant sticking point, an issue further complicated by an American destroyer on Sunday firing on and seizing an Iranian ship that tried to evade it.
Tehran said it would retaliate, with the state-run Tasnim news agency reporting that Iran had sent drones in the direction of U.S. military ships after its vessel was seized.
Iran Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said in a weekly press briefing Monday that, “As of now … we have no plans for the next round of negotiation, and no decision has been made in this regard.”
State broadcaster IRIB cited Iranian sources as saying “there are currently no plans to participate in the next round of Iran-U.S. talks.” The Fars and Tasnim news agencies had earlier cited anonymous sources as saying “the overall atmosphere cannot be assessed as very positive,” adding that lifting the U.S. blockade was a precondition for negotiations.
State-run IRNA meanwhile pointed to the blockade and Washington’s “unreasonable and unrealistic demands,” saying that “in these circumstances, there is no clear prospect of fruitful negotiations.”
Iran and the United States, along with Israel, are just days away from the end of the two-week ceasefire that halted the Middle East war, ignited by surprise US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28.
There has so far been only a single, 21-hour negotiating session held in Islamabad on April 11 that ended inconclusively, though groundwork for fresh talks continued afterwards.
“We’re offering a very fair and reasonable deal, and I hope they take it,” Trump said in a social media post, while also renewing his threats against Iran’s infrastructure if a deal isn’t reached, per AFP.
However, as of 9.45pm Nigerian time last night, there were reports that Iran was reconsidering its withdrawal from a proposed second round of peace talks with the US, a senior Iranian official said. It comes as Trump says a delegation from Washington is on its way to Pakistan for a new round of talks.
US Seizes Iranian Ship Trying to Pass Naval Blockade
Trump has said US marines intercepted and took “full custody” of an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman. US forces seized the vessel earlier after it tried to get past the US blockade – currently in place around Iranian ports, Trump posted on Truth Social.
The US president said: “The Iranian crew refused to listen, so our Navy ship stopped them right in their tracks by blowing a hole in the engineroom.”
The incident is the latest flashpoint in tensions between the US and Iran. Iran reversed its decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz at the weekend, while Tehran earlier rejected a second round of peace talks with the US, according to Iranian state media.
Iran has accused the US blockade, which began on Monday, of violating the two-week ceasefire agreement between the two countries. Yesterday, Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf described the blockade as “a foolish ad stupid decision”.
The blockade is against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
The US military has previously warned any ships attempting to get past the blockade would be boarded and seized.