The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Oil/Gas Index has emerged as the major driver of the Nigerian stock market’s N65.74 trillion gain in 10 months of 2026, closing as the best performing sectoral index with a 127.9 per cent Year-to-Date return.
Data from the Nigerian Exchange Limited, showed that market capitalisation which opened the year at N99.376 trillion surged by N65.74 trillion or 66.15 per cent to close October 30, 2026 at N165.114 trillion, while the All-Share Index rose by 63.42 per cent to 254,299.49 basis points from 155,613.03 basis points.
Within the rally, the NGX Oil/Gas Index led the charge, gaining 127.9 per cent YtD to close at 6,085.42 basis points as of October 30. The performance outpaced NGX Industrial Index which advanced by 114.9 per cent, NGX Banking Index up 60.27 per cent and NGX Consumer Goods Index which rose marginally by 0.97 per cent. In contrast, NGX Insurance Index declined by 13.6 per cent YtD to 1,027.06 basis points, emerging as the worst performing index.
Analysts linked the oil and gas outperformance to stability in the foreign exchange market, improved investor confidence in energy sector reforms, impressive nine months corporate earnings ended September 30, 2026 and higher energy prices.
The sector’s rally has also been supported by strong demand for highly capitalized energy stocks and increased foreign portfolio participation following Nigeria’s return to FTSE Russell Frontier Market status on September 21, 2026 after three years absence.
The broader market rally in 2026 has been anchored by macroeconomic improvements including easing inflation, a cut in Monetary Policy Rate by the Central Bank of Nigeria to 23 per cent from 26.5 per cent, improved liquidity and the commencement of the N2.1 trillion Initial Public Offer of Dangote Refinery in September.
In October alone, the market gained N2.01 trillion, crossing the N165 trillion mark for the first time. In September, it gained N5.37 trillion or 3.4 per cent Month-on-Month to close at N163.104 trillion from N157.739 trillion in August, driven by FTSE Russell reclassification and renewed foreign inflows.
Speaking on the market trend, managing director, AVA Securities Limited, Ms. Adejoke Ganiyu, said monetary policy remains a key driver of sectoral rotation.
She noted that the previous cycle favoured banks due to high interest rates, but the current low-yield environment is now shifting interest to other sectors.
“The current environment signals stability: a steadier foreign exchange market, moderating inflation and a cumulative 350 basis point cut in the MPR to 23 per cent. This is already visible in fixed income, with Nigerian Treasury Bill yields down to about 18 per cent. As money market yields adjust, we expect a sector rotation into consumer goods, but oil and gas will continue to benefit from reforms and foreign inflows,” she said.
She added that lower NTB yields and the MPR cut should continue to support the equities market over the remaining two months of 2026, as capital rotates from fixed income into equities, with oil and gas, industrial and consumer goods likely to lead.
A stockbroker, Tunde Oyediran noted that the N65.74 trillion gain is a fundamental repricing driven by FX stability, easing inflation, MPR cut to 23 per cent and Nigeria’s return to FTSE Russell Frontier status.
“Oil & Gas leading at 127.9 per cent reflects energy reforms and FX-linked earnings. Industrial at 114.9 per cent and Banking at 60.27 per cent show confidence in large caps like Dangote Cement, Airtel Africa and MTNN. Insurance down 13.6 per cent shows investors want earnings visibility.
“With T-Bill yields at 18 per cent and daily volume up 52.5 per cent to 997 million units, we expect rotation from fixed income into equities to sustain the rally into year-end.”
Analysts stated the strong YtD performance of oil and gas stocks underscores the market’s confidence in the energy sector’s earnings outlook and its strategic role in driving the N65.74 trillion wealth creation recorded so far this year.