The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may likely pause production hikes in the first quarter of 2026 amid widespread predictions of an oversupply.
Meanwhile, world oil supply is expected to match demand next year in a reflection of the wider OPEC+ group’s production increases, an OPEC report showed on Wednesday, marking a further shift from its earlier projections of a supply deficit in 2026.
OPEC+, which includes Russia and other allies, has raised its output targets by around 2.9 million barrels per day – or around 2.7 per cent of global supply – since April.
In a monthly report on Wednesday, OPEC said the world economy’s growth trend remained firm.
While demand is seen as steady, OPEC said in the report that OPEC+ in October cut output by 73,000 bpd to 43.02 million bpd, despite the group’s output hike agreement for the month, led by a drop in Kazakhstan.
Expected demand for OPEC+ crude at 43.0 million bpd in 2026 implies that the world market will see a marginal surplus of 20,000 bpd if the wider group keeps pumping at October’s rate, according to a Reuters calculation based on the report.
Last month’s report had projected a deficit of 50,000 bpd, and the September report pointed to a shortfall of 700,000 bpd.